The Complete Risk and Decision Analysis Toolkit
Wouldn’t you like to know the chances of making money on your next venture? Or which of many decision options is most likely to yield the best payoff? How about the best sequential drilling strategy? Or how much to invest in various projects in order to maximize the return on your project portfolio?
Everyone would like answers to these types of questions. Armed with that kind of information, you could take a lot of guesswork out of big decisions and plan strategies with confidence. With the DecisionTools Suite, you can answer these questions and more – right in your Excel spreadsheet.
The DecisionTools Suite is an integrated set of programs for risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty that runs in Microsoft Excel. The DecisionTools Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, the DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together better than ever before, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.
Learn how to get started quickly in the DecisionTools Suite Watch videos of different industry applications of the DecisionTools Suite Watch videos of the DecisionTools Suite features
» More on risk analysis
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New in Version 6.2 – Improved VBA Automation, Greater Language Support, and More
New XDK Functionality and Documentation
@RISK, PrecisionTree, Evolver, StatTools, and NeuralTools offer an Excel Developer’s Kit (XDK), which allows you to automate and customize the tool within Excel using Excel’s built-in VBA programming language. The XDK for @RISK has been updated to include new functionality for the automation of @RISK graphs and simulation filters, as well as several additional improvements. For all products, the XDK now includes a new “Automation Guide” to help you get started quickly. In addition, new videos and example files have been added to all XDKs to help you use this powerful feature. See XDK videos.
Improved Simulation Startup Time for Project Models
The time required to initialize a simulation of models from Microsoft Project has been dramatically reduced for most cases. The improvement is most significant in models with many tasks.
Russian Translation
All products have also been translated into Russian. This is in addition to the other languages available for the DecisionTools Suite: Spanish, Portuguese, German, French, Chinese, Japanese, and English.
@RISK performs risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to show you many possible outcomes in your Microsoft Excel spreadsheet—and tells you how likely they are to occur. This means you can judge which risks to take and which ones to avoid.
Greater Than the Sum of its Parts
Each component of the DecisionTools Suite can perform a powerful analysis. When you combine these products, you can achieve more complete results than any single program can provide.
The focus of an @RISK analysis can be narrowed using TopRank. Especially with large models, this saves time and improves accuracy of your @RISK analysis. @RISK functions can also be used by TopRank to represent a wider range of values than TopRank’s standard functions.
Watch how @RISK and TopRank work together
In addition, @RISK can be combined with PrecisionTree to represent uncertain chance events and payoffs in decision tree models. This enhances the accuracy of decision tree models by considering wider ranges of values for chance events instead of a few limited, discrete options.
Watch how @RISK and PrecisionTree work together
@RISK results can be run through a StatTools analysis to assess confidence intervals. @RISK can also be applied to results from a StatTools forecast to simulate possible outcomes with more precision.
for decision analysis with
decision trees and influence diagrams
PrecisionTree performs decision analysis in Microsoft Excel using decision trees and influence diagrams. Decision trees let you visually map out complex, multi-layered decisions in a sequential, organized manner. This helps you identify all possible alternatives and choose the best option.
Greater Than the Sum of its Parts
Each component of the DecisionTools Suite can perform a powerful analysis. When you combine these products, you can achieve more complete results than any single program can provide.
PrecisionTree represents chance events and payoffs with discrete values or probabilities. When combined with @RISK, @RISK enhances the analysis by representing continuous ranges of outcomes for chance events and payoffs.
Watch how PrecisionTree and @RISK work together
PrecisionTree models can also be run with TopRank to identify the most critical factors in larger, more complex tree models.
for automated “what if” sensitivity analysis
TopRank performs automated “what if” sensitivity analysis on Microsoft Excel spreadsheets. You can define any output or “bottom line” cell or cells, and TopRank will automatically find and vary all input cells which affect your output. The end result is identification and ranking of all input factors which affect your bottom line.
Greater Than the Sum of its Parts
Each component of the DecisionTools Suite can perform a powerful analysis. When you combine these products, you can achieve more complete results than any single program can provide.
TopRank is useful for narrowing down the focus of large models before performing a risk analysis with @RISK. Especially with large models, this saves time and improves accuracy of your @RISK analysis. In addition, TopRank can use @RISK to represent a wider range of values than TopRank’s standard functions.
Watch how TopRank and @RISK work together
TopRank can also be run with PrecisionTree models to identify the most critical factors in larger, more complex tree models.
for predictive analysis using
intelligent neural networks
NeuralTools performs predictions in Microsoft Excel using sophisticated neural networks. NeuralTools imitates brain functions to “learn” patterns in your known data, and uses those patterns to make predictions from new, incomplete data. In addition, NeuralTools can automatically update predictions live when input data changes, saving time and enabling more robust analyses.
Greater Than the Sum of its Parts
Each component of the DecisionTools Suite can perform a powerful analysis. When you combine these products, you can achieve more complete results than any single program can provide.
NeuralTools and Evolver
Combine NeuralTools with Evolver to optimize complex problems. Set Evolver’s target goal as the live predictive output for NeuralTools, and the cells for Evolver to adjust as the new inputs for NeuralTools. Then watch Evolver and NeuralTools work together to predict the optimal solution.
Watch how NeuralTools and Evolver work together
You could even run NeuralTools in conjunction with RISKOptimizer, running Monte Carlo simulations on each trial solution and making live predictions of the results.
for forecasting and
advanced statistical analysis
StatTools performs forecasting and statistical analysis in Microsoft Excel. It actually replaces Excel’s built-in statistics functions with its own, more robust and accurate functions. StatTools covers the most common statistical analyses, and even allows you to build your own custom statistical procedures.
Greater Than the Sum of its Parts
Each component of the DecisionTools Suite can perform a powerful analysis. When you combine these products, you can achieve more complete results than any single program can provide.
Combine StatTools with @RISK to assess confidence intervals on simulation results. You can also apply @RISK functions to StatTools forecast results to simulate possible outcomes with more precision than the deterministic analysis alone. Run RISKOptimizer on your model using the same @RISK functions in order to find the best combination of factors to maximize your forecasted profits.
Watch how StatTools and @RISK work together
for sophisticated optimization
Evolver performs optimization in Microsoft Excel using genetic algorithms, linear programming, or the OptQuest solving methods. It is equally suited to finding the best solution to linear problems large and small, or to finding the best overall global solution to nonlinear, complex problems where other solvers fail. Evolver constantly tries new, different solutions to arrive at the best answer possible.
Greater Than the Sum of its Parts
Each component of the DecisionTools Suite can perform a powerful analysis. When you combine these products, you can achieve more complete results than any single program can provide.
Evolver then NeuralTools
Combine Evolver with NeuralTools to optimize complex problems with live neural network prediction. Set Evolver’s target goal as the live predictive output for NeuralTools, and the cells for Evolver to adjust as the new inputs for NeuralTools. Then watch Evolver and NeuralTools work together to predict the optimal solution.
Watch how Evolver and NeuralTools work together
combines optimization and for optimization under uncertainty
RISKOptimizer uses genetic algorithms or OptQuest methods, along with Monte Carlo simulation, to solve optimization problems under uncertainty. Take any optimization problem and replace uncertain values with @RISK functions that represent ranges of possible values. RISKOptimizer will try different combinations of adjustable cells to achieve the goal you define, while running Monte Carlo simulations on each trial solution to account for inherent uncertainty. The result is the most robust, accurate solution possible.
Greater Than the Sum of its Parts
Each component of the DecisionTools Suite can perform a powerful analysis. When you combine these products, you can achieve more complete results than any single program can provide.
Run RISKOptimizer on an existing @RISK model to maximize your profits, minimize your costs, or achieve a particular target. RISKOptimizer uses all the same functions as @RISK.
You could run a RISKOptimizer analysis on the results from a StatTools forecast, applying @RISK functions to the forecasted values while adjusting controllable factors to maximize total profits.
Even combine RISKOptimizer with NeuralTools to make live predictions on each trial solution.
FEATURES See all possible outcomes with Monte Carlo simulation Map out decisions with decision trees and influence diagrams Works in Excel Genetic algorithms and OptQuest optimization methods Linear Programming solving methods Sensitivity or What-If Analysis Distribution viewing and fitting Presentation-quality graphs and reports Full integration between programs Parallel processing Bundle pricing BENEFITS Avoid pitfalls and identify opportunities in @RISK or PrecisionTree models Identify and illustrate the best alternative No need to learn new applications from scratch Solve complex, nonlinear problems involving uncertainty Solve linear problems – both large and small – quickly and accurately Identify the most important variables in @RISK or PrecisionTree models Accurate description of uncertainty Easily explain results and recommendations to others Easily install and migrate between component tools; apply analyses from one tool to another tool’s model for greater insight Speed up large Monte Carlo simulations by using available CPUs within a single machine Save money compared to buying products separately |
Licensing and Training
The DecisionTools Suite is available through a variety of licensing options, including corporate, network, and academic licenses. Training, consulting, and books can be bundled with your software to ensure you and your staff get the most out of your investment.
100% Excel
@RISK simulations are calculated 100% within Excel, supported by Palisade sampling and statistics proven in over twenty years of use. Palisade does not attempt to rewrite Excel in an external recalculator to gain speed. A single recalculation from an unsupported or poorly reproduced macro or function can dramatically change your results. Where will it occur, and when? Palisade harnesses the power of multiple CPUs and multi-core processors to give you the fastest calculations. Correct results—and fast—using @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite!
COMPATIBILITY: @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software is compatible with all 32-bit and 64-bit versions of Microsoft Windows XP-8, Excel 2003-2013, and Project 2003-2013.
64-bit Compatible
64-bit technology enables Excel and DecisionTools software to access much more computer memory than ever before. This allows for vastly larger models and greater computational power.